Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:18 am at Santa Barbara); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2117 Southwest	SBA 15:25	LAS 16:45	16%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 3602 Southwest Flight history →	SBA 18:00	LAS 19:15	17%	6%	0.4%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 18:18 → LAX 19:32UA 5647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 1546	6h 03m	100%	83%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655	7h 20m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04DL 1690	5h 24m	98%	71%
United Details →	SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	7h 07m	100%	69%
United Details →	SBA 14:30 → LAX 15:26UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest	3h 33m Los Angeles	LAX 18:59 → LAS 20:21UA 679	5h 51m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	SBA 11:20 → OAK 12:30WN 2336	2h 00m Oakland	OAK 14:30 → LAS 16:05WN 577	4h 45m	100%	67%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	2h 29m San Francisco	SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751	5h 29m	96%	65%
American Details →	SBA 12:16 → PHX 13:54AA 3784 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Phoenix	PHX 17:07 → LAS 18:22AA 1565	6h 06m	98%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON