Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:25 pm at Santa Barbara); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 18:18	LAX 19:32	21%	7%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
UA 5994 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 14:30	LAX 15:26	26%	7%	0.6%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 27m	97%	77%
United Details →	SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 20:55 → LAX 22:37UA 2850	6h 34m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197	6h 52m	98%	77%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 37m San Francisco	SFO 18:45 → LAX 20:29UA 1427	6h 31m	99%	72%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	1h 49m Denver	DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240	6h 52m	93%	69%
Southwest Details →	SBA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 3602	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → LAX 23:45WN 1056	5h 45m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179	3h 55m	64%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON