Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:36 am at Santa Barbara); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: MQ 4030 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet today MQ 4030 SBA 10:10 → PHX 11:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4927 SBA 18:48 → PHX 20:31 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4030 Envoy	SBA 10:10	PHX 11:57	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3784 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SBA 12:16	PHX 13:54	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
MQ 3467 Envoy	SBA 16:00	PHX 17:37	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3900 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SBA 18:48	PHX 20:38	19%	7%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 6356 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 09:45	PHX 11:26	20%	9%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 3256 American	SBA 13:27	PHX 15:08	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 4927 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 18:48	PHX 20:31	28%	11%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON