Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:38 pm at Santa Barbara); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:50, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202	7h 00m	98%	71%
United Details →	SBA 18:18 → LAX 19:32UA 5647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594	5h 36m	100%	64%
United Details →	SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 21:21 → SAN 23:14UA 442	7h 11m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	SBA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 3602	3h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 22:45 → SAN 00:03 +1WN 2397	6h 03m	100%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest	52m San Francisco	SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142	4h 07m	65%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON