Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 469 SBA 18:52 → SEA 21:27 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 400 SBA 19:28 → SEA 22:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 469 Alaska	SBA 18:52	SEA 21:27	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 400 Alaska Flight history →	SBA 19:28	SEA 22:00	20%	6%	0.7%	71%
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SBA 10:51	SEA 13:26	18%	0%	1.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON