Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:33 am at Santa Barbara)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4299 Southwest	SBA 19:25	SMF 20:54	15%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 3603 Southwest Flight history →	SBA 19:50	SMF 21:05	16%	6%	0.4%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 54m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	94%	85%
Southwest Details →	SBA 05:05 → LAS 06:30WN 4422	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	5h 00m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	5h 36m	98%	84%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 09:29 → SMF 11:14UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	5h 14m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 26m	99%	82%
American Details →	SBA 06:00 → PHX 07:36AA 1640	2h 33m Phoenix	PHX 10:09 → SMF 12:30AA 1677	6h 30m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	SBA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 3602	3h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 22:40 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4226	6h 20m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon	59m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:28AS 793	4h 49m	67%	55%
United Details →	SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → SMF 23:59UA 1302	3h 35m	73%	54%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	49m San Diego	SAN 15:36 → SMF 17:18AS 349	3h 36m	62%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON