Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4867 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4867 SDF 07:15 → BNA 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1712 SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4867 Southwest	SDF 07:15	BNA 07:22	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3604 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 07:25	BNA 07:15	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 2630 Southwest	SDF 18:15	BNA 18:23	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1712 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 18:05	BNA 17:55	22%	5%	0.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON