Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4809 SDF 05:35 → BWI 07:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 19 SDF 17:10 → BWI 18:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4809 Southwest	SDF 05:35	BWI 07:23	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4612 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 05:50	BWI 07:25	3%	1%	0.4%	88%
WN 1267 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 10:45	BWI 12:20	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 1167 Southwest	SDF 11:50	BWI 13:38	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4209 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 17:05	BWI 18:45	8%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 19 Southwest	SDF 17:10	BWI 18:57	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON