Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Louisville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209	2h 28m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	7h 36m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	SDF 15:00 → HOU 16:20WN 3606	2h 05m Houston	HOU 18:25 → DAL 19:38WN 50	5h 38m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 20:15 → DAL 22:16WN 1440	5h 11m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	SDF 20:05 → MDW 20:20WN 3329	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → DAL 23:41WN 2868	4h 36m	84%	70%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 38m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	SDF 17:30 → MCO 19:35WN 910	2h 15m Orlando	MCO 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 1973	7h 00m	89%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SDF 17:30 → MCO 19:35WN 910	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 20:35 → DAL 22:23WN 1565	5h 53m	53%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON