Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2798 SDF 11:05 → DEN 11:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1510 SDF 15:25 → DEN 16:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2798 Southwest	SDF 11:05	DEN 11:56	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SDF 08:00	DEN 08:59	10%	3%	0.2%	94%
UA 2390 United	SDF 07:55	DEN 08:48	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1297 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 13:10	DEN 13:55	13%	3%	0.3%	79%
UA 1510 United Flight history →	SDF 15:25	DEN 16:24	14%	4%	0.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON