Today: AA 3788 at 11:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet today AA 3788 SDF 11:09 → DFW 12:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2519 SDF 19:50 → DFW 21:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3788 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 11:09	DFW 12:30	11%	3%	0.5%	90%
MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 10:53	DFW 12:11	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 08:06	DFW 09:36	14%	7%	0.6%	80%
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	15%	4%	0.5%	84%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 18:01	DFW 19:25	21%	6%	0.6%	69%
OH 5276 PSA	SDF 17:53	DFW 19:20	22%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1796 American	SDF 16:05	DFW 17:33	26%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 1736 American	SDF 16:23	DFW 17:54	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2321 American	SDF 19:24	DFW 20:46	33%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	SDF 19:50	DFW 21:12	33%	12%	1.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON