Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5824 SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3821 SDF 10:34 → DTW 12:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5824 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:50	DTW 09:16	5%	3%	0.1%	90%
DL 3821 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 10:34	DTW 12:03	11%	4%	0.2%	88%
DL 5160 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 14:19	DTW 15:46	29%	11%	2.2%	71%
DL 4947 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 17:26	DTW 18:58	35%	22%	1.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON