Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3618 Southwest	SDF 15:30	HOU 16:59	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3606 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 15:00	HOU 16:20	24%	5%	0.6%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SDF 08:45 → MDW 09:00WN 3609	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	5h 05m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	SDF 05:50 → BWI 07:25WN 4612	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 08:25 → HOU 10:40WN 4158	5h 50m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	SDF 12:00 → DAL 13:05WN 4466	3h 57m Dallas	DAL 17:02 → HOU 18:21WN 43	7h 21m	100%	78%
American Details →	SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:29 → HOU 20:07AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 49m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	SDF 15:35 → MDW 15:50WN 3610	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 17:40 → HOU 20:15WN 2785	5h 40m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	SDF 06:40 → MCO 08:40WN 4679	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 09:40 → HOU 11:10WN 3174	5h 30m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 05m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON