tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:59 pm at Louisville); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 21:25 → LAS 23:35WN 977 9h 30m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40UA 5929 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Chicago ORD 20:29 → LAS 22:27UA 777 7h 37m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 20:05 → MDW 20:20WN 3329 2h 35m Chicago MDW 22:55 → LAS 00:40 +1WN 3426 7h 35m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825 8h 48m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → SDF 17:19 → ORD 18:06AA 4668 · flown by Republic 3h 54m Chicago ORD 22:00 → LAS 23:53AA 1880 9h 34m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:32 → MSP 17:42DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 6h 48m 82% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712 2h 25m Nashville BNA 20:20 → LAS 22:15WN 548 7h 10m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → SDF 16:57 → IAH 18:07UA 6310 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 7h 26m 82% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:05 → CLT 19:36AA 3219 1h 17m Charlotte CLT 20:53 → LAS 22:30AA 1275 7h 25m 67% 42%
AmericanDetails → SDF 19:50 → DFW 21:12AA 2519 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:34 → LAS 23:27AA 624 6h 37m 69% 41%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712 55m Nashville BNA 18:50 → LAS 20:52WN 814 5h 47m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON