Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5643 SDF 11:42 → LGA 13:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5637 SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 5643 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 11:42	LGA 13:58	11%	6%	0.2%	85%
DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 14:09	LGA 16:30	11%	7%	0.4%	81%
DL 4852 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 17:55	LGA 20:20	38%	23%	7.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON