Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: OH 5255 at 16:56, 26%.

Safest bet today OH 5255 SDF 16:56 → PHL 18:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5394 SDF 18:25 → PHL 20:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5255 PSA	SDF 16:56	PHL 18:59	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 5394 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 18:25	PHL 20:23	30%	9%	1.4%	57%
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 12:12	PHL 14:20	23%	8%	3.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON