tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Louisville); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:50, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40UA 5929 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 7h 37m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 15:35 → MDW 15:50WN 3610 3h 25m Chicago MDW 19:15 → PHX 20:52WN 2960 8h 17m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 8h 52m 99% 63%
AmericanDetails → SDF 17:19 → ORD 18:06AA 4668 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Chicago ORD 20:48 → PHX 22:51AA 3277 8h 32m 98% 63%
SouthwestDetails → SDF 20:05 → MDW 20:20WN 3329 2h 35m Chicago MDW 22:55 → PHX 00:32 +1WN 3803 7h 27m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → SDF 16:57 → IAH 18:07UA 6310 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 8h 28m 94% 62%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:32 → MSP 17:42DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 34m 80% 60%
AmericanDetails → SDF 15:39 → CLT 17:24AA 5397 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53AA 2923 9h 14m 99% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:25 → PHL 20:23AA 5394 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → PHX 23:59AA 2721 8h 34m 73% 38%
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:05 → CLT 19:36AA 3219 59m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53AA 2923 6h 48m 67% 35%
AmericanDetails → SDF 18:01 → DFW 19:25AA 4152 · flown by Envoy 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → PHX 20:49AA 3232 5h 48m 67% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON