Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:11 am at Louisville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: WN 650 at 10:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops today


WN 650 Southwest Flight history →	SDF 10:50	TPA 12:50	10%	4%	0.4%	80%
WN 1344 Southwest	SDF 17:40	TPA 19:49	21%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SDF 09:00 → ORD 09:38UA 3696 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	6h 12m	100%	87%
United Details →	SDF 10:23 → ORD 11:10UA 3520 · flown by Republic	2h 03m Chicago	ORD 13:13 → TPA 17:00UA 2244	6h 37m	100%	81%
American Details →	SDF 10:36 → ORD 11:15AA 4704 · flown by Republic	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 13:36 → TPA 17:25AA 2768	6h 49m	96%	76%
Southwest Details →	SDF 10:45 → BWI 12:20WN 1267	3h 11m Baltimore	BWI 15:31 → TPA 18:09WN 2557	7h 24m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209	2h 35m Baltimore	BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578	6h 50m	99%	75%
Southwest Details →	SDF 18:05 → BNA 17:55WN 1712	3h 30m Nashville	BNA 21:25 → TPA 00:20 +1WN 2173	6h 15m	100%	75%
American Details →	SDF 08:15 → CLT 09:54AA 2099	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 12:54 → TPA 14:38AA 2832	6h 23m	96%	74%
United Details →	SDF 09:30 → IAH 10:58UA 6326 · flown by Mesa	1h 52m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	6h 42m	94%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	5h 09m	66%	52%
American Details →	SDF 20:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1775	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:38 +1AA 1773	4h 19m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON