Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:21 pm at Seattle); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: United via SFO, leaving 17:20, 50% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 17:20 → SFO 19:37UA 2164	2h 58m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	97%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 19:05 → SFO 21:21UA 2241	1h 14m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	66%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON