Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 569 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 569 SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 334 SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 569 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ATL 13:53	7%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 562 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ATL 15:17	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 567 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:45	ATL 05:38	17%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 652 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:27	ATL 08:18	17%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 560 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:02	ATL 16:56	19%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 409 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:58	ATL 06:45	20%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 797 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:35	ATL 16:31	22%	5%	0.8%	69%
DL 542 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:35	ATL 21:47	22%	4%	0.8%	80%
AS 464 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:31	ATL 07:24	24%	3%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 554 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ATL 20:04	24%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 217 Alaska	SEA 16:08	ATL 00:02	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 727 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:05	ATL 23:59	25%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 334 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	ATL 16:57	33%	5%	0.7%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Spokane	GEG 22:48 → ATL 06:05 +1DL 1843	7h 08m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	1h 08m Denver	DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824	7h 00m	86%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON