Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 848 at 17:50, 23%.

Safest bet today DL 848 SEA 17:50 → AUS 23:53 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 831 SEA 11:00 → AUS 17:16 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	23%	6%	0.8%	75%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	25%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	26%	6%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:45	AUS 17:44	27%	3%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 4956 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 13:50	AUS 20:05	37%	8%	0.5%	40%
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:13	AUS 14:13	37%	7%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
AS 422 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	AUS 15:14	38%	7%	0.6%	69%
WN 3786 Southwest	SEA 09:00	AUS 15:02	38%	8%	0.3%	no record
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:00	AUS 17:16	43%	18%	0.6%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SEA 00:24 → DFW 05:46AA 2003	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → AUS 08:04AA 3401 · flown by Envoy	5h 40m	76%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON