Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1710 at 09:29 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1710 SEA 09:29 → BNA 15:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 536 SEA 22:45 → BNA 05:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1710 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:29	BNA 15:54	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	18%	4%	0.8%	82%
AS 382 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	BNA 05:40	20%	3%	0.6%	78%
AS 1345 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:15	BNA 15:40	23%	4%	0.6%	82%
AS 416 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:31	BNA 23:59	24%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 1532 Alaska	SEA 09:26	BNA 15:43	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 450 Alaska	SEA 17:32	BNA 23:49	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 536 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 22:45	BNA 05:00	28%	6%	0.4%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON