Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Today: DL 3750 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet today DL 3750 SEA 07:15 → BOI 09:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 357 SEA 09:57 → BOI 12:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	BOI 09:53	12%	4%	0.2%	93%
DL 3959 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:30	BOI 15:11	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
AS 248 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:07	BOI 09:40	17%	3%	0.2%	90%
DL 3688 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:10	BOI 18:46	19%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:50	BOI 17:24	19%	6%	0.6%	88%
DL 3678 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:00	BOI 11:38	20%	6%	0.2%	91%worse than usual
DL 3692 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:40	BOI 22:18	20%	6%	0.6%	87%
OO 3211 SkyWest	SEA 11:30	BOI 14:04	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 467 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:56	BOI 15:25	21%	4%	0.5%	87%
DL 4090 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:20	BOI 23:51	23%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 445 Alaska	SEA 21:29	BOI 23:58	30%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 357 Alaska	SEA 09:57	BOI 12:27	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
AS 2061 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:45	BOI 18:11	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AS 2034 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:59	BOI 22:24	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
AS 2109 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:40	BOI 20:07	18%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 2230 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:59	BOI 12:26	19%	5%	0.0%	81%
AS 2106 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:36	BOI 14:07	29%	4%	1.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON