Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 781 at 21:36 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Safest bet that day AS 781 SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 378 SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 781 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:36	BWI 05:41	17%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 3613 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 21:25	BWI 05:20	28%	8%	0.6%	50%
AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	28%	5%	0.7%	84%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:42WN 2848	7h 12m	100%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	89%	78%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:50 → BWI 15:15WN 1509	7h 00m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON