Today: AS 269 at 22:13 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–31%.

Safest bet today AS 269 SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 263 SEA 13:17 → CLE 20:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 269 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:13	CLE 05:43	19%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:10	CLE 16:36	28%	4%	0.4%	80%
AS 263 Alaska	SEA 13:17	CLE 20:44	31%	7%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 14:30 → DTW 21:49DL 533	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 22:57 → CLE 23:56DL 3646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	86%	70%
Delta Details →	SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942	57m Minneapolis	MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392	6h 14m	79%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON