Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 381 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 05:10 → CLT 13:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 858 SEA 13:33 → CLT 21:32 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 381 American Flight history →	SEA 05:10	CLT 13:17	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 854 American Flight history →	SEA 07:10	CLT 15:22	20%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 2793 American Flight history →	SEA 21:35	CLT 05:41	23%	4%	1.3%	85%
AA 2525 American Flight history →	SEA 10:47	CLT 19:06	30%	6%	1.0%	80%worse than usual
AA 1833 American	SEA 11:15	CLT 19:14	33%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2529 American Flight history →	SEA 13:10	CLT 21:20	34%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 858 American	SEA 13:33	CLT 21:32	36%	5%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:38DL 953	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 07:13 → CLT 10:40DL 1912	7h 21m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	7h 25m	96%	84%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:57 → CLT 15:25UA 2231	7h 25m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON