Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:54 am at Seattle)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 463 Alaska	SEA 13:25	CMH 20:43	23%	4%	0.2%	no record
AS 280 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:12	CMH 05:40	25%	3%	0.6%	90%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → CMH 15:04WN 4660	6h 34m	100%	89%
American Details →	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 15:15 → CMH 17:49AA 3361 · flown by Envoy	8h 49m	98%	88%
American Details →	SEA 10:28 → ORD 16:30AA 3234	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → CMH 22:03AA 3447 · flown by Envoy	8h 35m	97%	87%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 16:34 → CMH 19:13UA 3570 · flown by Republic	9h 13m	97%	87%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 32m	92%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:34DL 536	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356	7h 55m	98%	84%
United Details →	SEA 13:00 → IAD 21:06UA 2131	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 22:31 → CMH 00:02 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	96%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → ORD 16:53AA 2523	53m Chicago	ORD 17:46 → CMH 20:25AA 4337 · flown by Republic	7h 03m	65%	57%
American Details →	SEA 10:28 → ORD 16:30AA 3234	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:30 → CMH 19:48AA 4288 · flown by Envoy	6h 20m	68%	55%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	49m Chicago	ORD 17:54 → CMH 20:16UA 1278	6h 24m	60%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON