Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2748 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2748 SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 757 SEA 15:21 → DFW 21:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2748 American Flight history →	SEA 05:05	DFW 11:02	11%	4%	0.7%	94%
AS 414 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:02	DFW 11:59	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2604 American	SEA 00:30	DFW 06:34	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 424 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:22	DFW 06:16	22%	4%	0.5%	80%
AA 2429 American Flight history →	SEA 00:44	DFW 06:43	22%	9%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AA 1667 American Flight history →	SEA 07:26	DFW 13:20	23%	5%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
AS 340 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:45	DFW 13:49	25%	4%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
AS 542 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	DFW 23:48	25%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 870 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:55	DFW 23:55	27%	8%	0.8%	73%
DL 803 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:15	DFW 15:13	28%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 2003 American Flight history →	SEA 23:22	DFW 05:18	30%	7%	1.3%	61%
AS 321 Alaska	SEA 08:39	DFW 14:31	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 549 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 12:13	DFW 18:21	31%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 727 American Flight history →	SEA 17:40	DFW 23:39	35%	10%	1.2%	60%
AS 341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:59	DFW 17:00	35%	5%	0.6%	64%
AA 707 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	DFW 16:30	37%	7%	1.0%	79%worse than usual
AA 767 American Flight history →	SEA 11:40	DFW 17:50	39%	9%	1.0%	68%
AA 717 American Flight history →	SEA 13:57	DFW 20:04	41%	10%	1.0%	74%worse than usual
AA 757 American Flight history →	SEA 15:21	DFW 21:24	41%	9%	1.0%	74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	58m Denver	DEN 09:41 → DFW 12:48UA 1350	5h 48m	89%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON