Today: DL 812 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet today DL 812 SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 315 SEA 22:18 → DTW 05:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 812 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	DTW 12:42	5%	2%	0.1%	92%
DL 810 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	DTW 06:28	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2324 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	DTW 17:04	16%	3%	0.1%	90%
DL 1706 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:20	DTW 18:37	18%	4%	0.1%	79%
DL 8786 Delta	SEA 22:02	DTW 05:12	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	DTW 21:49	21%	4%	0.1%	86%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:18	DTW 16:33	30%	5%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
AS 315 Alaska	SEA 22:18	DTW 05:26	30%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON