Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 20–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 4124 SEA 15:44 → EUG 17:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 3360 SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4124 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:44	EUG 17:05	20%	5%	0.6%	90%
OO 3016 SkyWest	SEA 15:56	EUG 17:13	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 181 SkyWest	SEA 16:06	EUG 17:23	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3855 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 22:35	EUG 23:51	22%	5%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
AS 3199 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:40	EUG 18:58	25%	8%	0.8%	79%
DL 4149 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:30	EUG 12:58	26%	9%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 3360 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:37	EUG 13:01	27%	10%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
AS 2047 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:49	EUG 23:59	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AS 2072 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	EUG 09:07	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2338 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:50	EUG 17:00	32%	5%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON