Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2100 at 15:23 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2100 SEA 15:23 → EWR 23:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 477 SEA 10:05 → EWR 18:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2100 United Flight history →	SEA 15:23	EWR 23:49	19%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	19%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:40	EWR 06:59	20%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 1274 United Flight history →	SEA 23:00	EWR 07:18	22%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 239 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:05	EWR 15:31	22%	3%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
AS 263 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:38	EWR 23:59	25%	5%	0.9%	54%
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:05	EWR 21:29	35%	9%	0.7%	74%
AS 477 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:05	EWR 18:29	37%	8%	0.9%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:34DL 953	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 30m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	7h 37m	85%	74%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 24m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON