Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: AS 1512 at 23:27, 26%.

Safest bet today AS 1512 SEA 23:27 → FAI 02:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 284 SEA 17:56 → FAI 20:46 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 1512 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:27	FAI 02:15	26%	5%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
DL 2186 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:41	FAI 00:30	33%	6%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
AS 1880 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:28	FAI 23:18	37%	8%	0.2%	69%
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 22:44	FAI 01:30	37%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:56	FAI 20:46	40%	11%	0.2%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON