Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3343 SEA 20:25 → FAT 22:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 384 SEA 10:51 → FAT 13:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3343 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:25	FAT 22:46	23%	5%	0.8%	85%
AS 383 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:19	FAT 18:31	24%	5%	0.6%	78%
AS 393 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:25	FAT 19:36	25%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:51	FAT 13:05	31%	5%	0.3%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON