Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2748 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2748 SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2748 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	IAH 11:21	10%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:05	IAH 13:31	16%	4%	0.5%	92%
UA 2702 United	SEA 00:08	IAH 06:16	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2379 United Flight history →	SEA 23:49	IAH 06:10	22%	6%	0.7%	84%
AS 398 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:57	IAH 06:20	23%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:00	IAH 23:26	28%	6%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:05	IAH 18:27	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 1573 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:33	IAH 23:59	30%	6%	0.7%	63%
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:35	IAH 23:47	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2293 United Flight history →	SEA 11:55	IAH 18:35	30%	6%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	46%	6%	0.7%	70%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	6h 01m	96%	76%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:56 → IAH 13:17UA 2030	6h 17m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON