tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 624 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:39 IND 05:44 19% 3% 0.6% 79%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:09 IND 16:16 26% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:37DL 953 3h 13m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456 8h 09m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 18m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IND 17:18DL 5826 · flown by Republic 8h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:17DL 652 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 9h 09m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618 3h 29m Chicago ORD 16:44 → IND 19:01UA 3418 · flown by Republic 9h 01m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 28m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → ORD 16:53AA 2523 3h 54m Chicago ORD 20:47 → IND 23:06AA 4594 · flown by Republic 9h 44m 92% 87%
UnitedDetails → SEA 17:20 → SFO 19:37UA 2164 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477 10h 18m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 50m Chicago ORD 17:55 → IND 20:13UA 3455 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 53% 49%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 47m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482 7h 28m 57% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:10 → PHX 14:05WN 3623 50m Phoenix PHX 14:55 → IND 21:16WN 452 7h 06m 47% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON