Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet today DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 264 SEA 22:19 → JFK 06:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 16:04	JFK 00:06	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:59	JFK 15:00	17%	4%	0.7%	63%
DL 461 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	JFK 00:21	17%	4%	0.7%	53%
AS 22 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	JFK 07:38	18%	2%	0.8%	81%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:59	JFK 21:55	28%	4%	0.7%	76%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:29	JFK 17:29	30%	6%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	31%	10%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:38DL 953	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 20m	90%	82%
Alaska Details →	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	1h 11m Portland	PDX 21:28 → JFK 05:28 +1AS 336	7h 06m	83%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON