Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2256 at 17:30, 40%.

Safest bet today DL 2256 SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 497 SEA 18:26 → MCI 00:02 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Weather 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	40%	14%	0.2%	77%worse than usual
AS 564 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:27	MCI 23:59	55%	23%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
AS 497 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:26	MCI 00:02	58%	19%	0.4%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON