Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 448 at 23:15, 12%.

Safest bet that day DL 448 SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 420 SEA 09:47 → MCO 18:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 448 Delta Flight history →	SEA 23:15	MCO 07:40	12%	4%	1.6%	85%
AS 394 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:33	MCO 06:16	14%	4%	1.2%	87%
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	23%	7%	1.8%	75%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:58	MCO 17:27	37%	7%	1.2%	88%worse than usual
AS 420 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:47	MCO 18:30	41%	9%	1.2%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	7h 59m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → MCO 16:20WN 3884	7h 50m	100%	80%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 27m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON