Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 3033 SEA 08:30 → MFR 10:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3954 SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3033 SkyWest	SEA 08:30	MFR 10:02	9%	5%	0.2%	no record
DL 3779 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:15	MFR 12:56	11%	4%	0.2%	85%
DL 3770 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:10	MFR 16:44	13%	4%	0.2%	92%
AS 3088 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:20	MFR 12:50	13%	5%	0.2%	75%
DL 3954 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	MFR 23:11	16%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 2461 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:40	MFR 00:04	11%	1%	4.2%	89%
AS 2037 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:47	MFR 19:13	14%	4%	1.9%	86%
AS 2111 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 08:25	MFR 09:54	18%	2%	2.3%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON