Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 506 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 506 SEA 08:09 → MIA 17:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 654 SEA 12:56 → MIA 21:55 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	16%	4%	0.9%	80%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	20%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 1471 American Flight history →	SEA 20:45	MIA 05:37	24%	4%	1.2%	74%
AA 654 American Flight history →	SEA 12:56	MIA 21:55	27%	6%	1.2%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 41m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:34DL 536	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 23m	94%	80%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 26m Denver	DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496	8h 16m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON