Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:34 pm at Seattle); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AS 307 at 18:09, 62%.

Nonstops today


AS 307 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:09	MKE 23:59	62%	15%	0.3%	82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 14:33 → DEN 18:22UA 333	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:27 → MKE 23:59UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	84%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → MKE 23:34AA 1234	7h 37m	42%	25%
American Details →	SEA 14:09 → ORD 20:45AA 2520	55m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → MKE 22:29AA 6257 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	28%	19%
United Details →	SEA 15:51 → DEN 19:35UA 757	52m Denver	DEN 20:27 → MKE 23:59UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	28%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON