tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 am at Seattle)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 490 Alaska Flight history → SEA 23:13 MSY 05:49 19% 3% 0.8% 82%
AS 568 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:37 MSY 16:16 45% 6% 0.6% 81%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 6h 17m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 07m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 39m Houston IAH 15:00 → MSY 16:28UA 2738 9h 28m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 20m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:15 → IAD 16:24UA 2463 3h 38m Dulles IAD 20:02 → MSY 21:49UA 2042 11h 34m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 1h 37m Houston IAH 15:08 → MSY 16:27UA 1493 7h 22m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:07 → MSY 22:37DL 2072 8h 38m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 1h 37m Detroit DTW 14:19 → MSY 15:49DL 1652 8h 19m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 12:56 → PHL 21:17AA 2870 52m Philadelphia PHL 22:09 → MSY 00:28 +1AA 1339 9h 32m 64% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:20 → DEN 16:10WN 3616 50m Denver DEN 17:00 → MSY 20:41WN 859 6h 21m 60% 42%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:23 → MSY 19:00AA 842 6h 38m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON