Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2055 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2055 SEA 07:20 → ORD 13:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 410 SEA 13:10 → ORD 19:21 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	15%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 747 United Flight history →	SEA 23:11	ORD 05:18	16%	4%	0.7%	86%
AS 578 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ORD 12:03	16%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2922 American Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ORD 12:12	17%	5%	0.5%	91%
AA 2881 American Flight history →	SEA 23:56	ORD 06:02	19%	5%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
AA 1872 American	SEA 06:03	ORD 12:04	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	20%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	22%	3%	0.5%	83%
AS 538 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:48	ORD 23:59	22%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1503 United Flight history →	SEA 17:15	ORD 23:22	23%	6%	0.6%	81%
AA 379 American Flight history →	SEA 00:07	ORD 05:54	24%	7%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
UA 1265 United	SEA 16:57	ORD 23:04	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	24%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	25%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ORD 16:43	26%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 2524 American Flight history →	SEA 15:28	ORD 22:00	26%	6%	0.9%	60%
AA 2672 American	SEA 17:58	ORD 23:42	30%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2523 American Flight history →	SEA 10:22	ORD 16:53	31%	5%	0.8%	74%
AS 579 Alaska	SEA 11:54	ORD 17:56	33%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:44	33%	4%	0.6%	56%
AA 3234 American Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:33	33%	5%	0.8%	54%
UA 2369 United	SEA 13:58	ORD 20:11	34%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2520 American Flight history →	SEA 14:09	ORD 20:45	35%	6%	0.9%	46%
AA 1476 American	SEA 15:22	ORD 21:26	35%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2101 United Flight history →	SEA 13:55	ORD 20:21	36%	8%	0.6%	65%
AS 410 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:10	ORD 19:21	39%	5%	0.6%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON