Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3953 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 3953 SEA 07:30 → PDX 08:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 686 SEA 15:55 → PDX 16:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3953 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	PDX 08:40	14%	4%	0.6%	94%
AS 761 Alaska	SEA 07:18	PDX 08:18	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4062 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:37	PDX 14:48	18%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3818 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:30	PDX 10:35	18%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 3918 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:00	PDX 17:06	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
AS 3132 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:45	PDX 09:49	19%	5%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
DL 3923 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 18:55	PDX 20:02	19%	6%	0.7%	80%
AS 3090 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:14	PDX 11:21	19%	6%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
AS 3204 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:45	PDX 14:48	19%	6%	0.6%	88%
OO 3143 SkyWest	SEA 14:33	PDX 15:35	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 279 Alaska	SEA 08:40	PDX 09:41	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 488 Alaska	SEA 12:14	PDX 13:14	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3913 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 20:59	PDX 22:00	22%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 3802 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:35	PDX 11:41	23%	8%	0.6%	86%
DL 4472 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 22:50	PDX 23:54	24%	6%	0.7%	67%
OO 3111 SkyWest	SEA 10:54	PDX 11:56	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 1457 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:29	PDX 23:30	28%	5%	0.6%	67%
AS 498 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:28	PDX 22:25	30%	5%	0.6%	74%
AS 686 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:55	PDX 16:55	30%	5%	0.6%	73%
AS 2432 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 06:42	PDX 07:37	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2377 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 23:26	PDX 00:22	14%	5%	4.5%	86%
AS 2387 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:25	PDX 21:22	17%	6%	0.0%	83%
AS 2372 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:22	PDX 20:17	18%	2%	0.0%	82%
AS 2302 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:59	PDX 18:56	25%	8%	0.0%	75%
AS 2181 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 12:05	PDX 13:06	40%	4%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON