tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 77 Alaska Flight history → SEA 22:37 PIT 06:10 25% 3% 0.6% 69%
AS 412 Alaska Flight history → SEA 12:52 PIT 20:19 26% 4% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:05AA 379 3h 40m Chicago ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic 9h 24m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:38DL 953 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 7h 14m 98% 93%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 1h 55m Chicago MDW 13:20 → PIT 15:51WN 2964 7h 21m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 8h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 30m San Francisco SFO 21:17 → PIT 05:19 +1UA 2117 10h 46m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:18DL 652 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 9h 25m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:32AA 3234 2h 13m Chicago ORD 18:45 → PIT 21:30AA 4569 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351 9h 51m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 50m Chicago MDW 18:50 → PIT 21:15WN 4211 6h 30m 58% 47%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:32AA 3234 58m Chicago ORD 17:30 → PIT 20:09AA 2296 6h 40m 60% 44%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:31 → PIT 21:20AA 1761 7h 58m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON