Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:10 pm at Seattle); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:14	PSP 22:03	35%	14%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
AS 3214 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:55	PSP 22:51	36%	14%	0.4%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SEA 15:44 → SFO 17:52AS 680	2h 27m San Francisco	SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	93%	62%
American Details →	SEA 15:20 → PHX 18:21AA 3440 · flown by Envoy	2h 02m Phoenix	PHX 20:23 → PSP 21:32AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest	6h 12m	92%	60%
Southwest Details →	SEA 17:35 → LAS 20:15WN 2267	2h 18m Las Vegas	LAS 22:33 → PSP 23:40WN 4651	6h 05m	89%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866	51m San Francisco	SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	45%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON