Today: DL 4141 at 17:25 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–43%.

Safest bet today DL 4141 SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 275 SEA 11:26 → RDM 12:32 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:25	RDM 18:43	22%	5%	0.4%	89%worse than usual
AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:50	RDM 21:02	22%	6%	0.5%	80%
DL 4047 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 21:35	RDM 22:57	25%	6%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AS 3435 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:19	RDM 17:31	26%	7%	0.3%	77%
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:22	RDM 12:45	28%	12%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
AS 3126 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:57	RDM 17:09	30%	7%	0.3%	72%
AS 275 Alaska	SEA 11:26	RDM 12:32	43%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 2094 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:53	RDM 23:59	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AS 2400 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:56	RDM 13:08	37%	4%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON