tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:19, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 572 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:20 RDU 16:31 20% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 489 Delta Flight history → SEA 15:55 RDU 23:55 22% 5% 1.0% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:06AA 379 3h 24m Chicago ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49AA 4756 · flown by Republic 9h 42m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:33AA 3234 3h 49m Chicago ORD 20:22 → RDU 23:42AA 4615 · flown by Republic 10h 13m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922 3h 47m Chicago ORD 15:59 → RDU 19:23AA 4518 · flown by Republic 10h 23m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 3h 20m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 9h 17m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 46m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 1h 55m Chicago MDW 13:20 → RDU 16:15WN 4462 7h 45m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:05 → MSP 17:37DL 941 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932 8h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:38DL 953 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783 7h 12m 92% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 11:45 → MDW 18:00WN 3081 50m Chicago MDW 18:50 → RDU 21:48WN 4648 7h 03m 65% 51%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956 1h 00m Austin AUS 21:05 → RDU 01:05 +1WN 382 8h 15m 63% 50%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617 46m Denver DEN 19:06 → RDU 00:28 +1WN 1746 6h 53m 61% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON