Today: AS 3079 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet today AS 3079 SEA 09:10 → RNO 11:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 601 SEA 11:46 → RNO 13:33 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3079 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:10	RNO 11:03	11%	4%	0.2%	92%
AS 736 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:52	RNO 22:40	24%	4%	0.6%	80%
AS 598 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:07	RNO 18:54	30%	5%	0.6%	75%
AS 273 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:53	RNO 13:50	33%	8%	0.4%	84%worse than usual
AS 601 Alaska	SEA 11:46	RNO 13:33	39%	8%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON