tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:58 am at Seattle)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:38 SAT 15:46 36% 5% 0.4% 76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 6h 06m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:12AA 2922 2h 47m Chicago ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 59m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:15 → DEN 08:50WN 3615 1h 42m Denver DEN 10:32 → SAT 13:44WN 1311 6h 29m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → IAH 11:21UA 2748 3h 10m Houston IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819 8h 39m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 06:30 → PHX 09:15WN 3001 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986 6h 40m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 06m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SAT 17:14DL 2680 7h 59m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 3h 57m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 9h 05m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 50m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → SAT 00:29 +1UA 6036 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 59% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15WN 3354 50m Phoenix PHX 21:05 → SAT 01:20 +1WN 3328 6h 00m 52% 36%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:45 → LAS 15:20WN 3620 48m Las Vegas LAS 16:08 → SAT 20:50WN 2597 6h 05m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON